The conflict in Ukraine and our daily life

Along with the general improvement in the covid situation, consumer sentiment has improved more and more since the start of the year. They reported less worry in various areas of daily activity. The momentum of this trend was halted by Russia’s attack on Ukraine. According to the Deloitte “Global State of the Consumer Tracker” survey carried out at the end of March, only 4%. The Poles interviewed do not fear that the war will have an impact on their daily life. At the same time, respondents clearly expect prices to rise accordingly. Signs of concern over the political situation also remained high.

The twenty-ninth edition of “Global State of the Consumer Tracker” was conducted at the end of March 2022. This is the first wave of the survey with direct questions on the mood of respondents after the attack on Russia against Ukraine. Already in a previous survey, conducted at the turn of February and March, respondents most often mentioned the political situation as a subject of concern. This was stated by 73 percent at the time. Poles surveyed. Social unrest was mentioned by more than half (55%).

A month earlier, 55%. pointed towards politics and the sphere of finance. In the latest survey at the end of March, worries about the political sphere decreased slightly, to 69%. The financial (52%) and social (47%) fields oscillate around half of the indications.

According to the Deloitte study, the outbreak of the war in Ukraine is very clearly perceived as an event potentially affecting the daily life of respondents in Poland. Only 4 percent. of respondents think the opposite, and just over one in ten (11%) are slightly worried. 26 percent of respondents believe they are a bit worried, and 17 percent. – only moderately. The most common answer, however, is that there are very serious concerns about the development of accidents in Ukraine and their consequences. So stated 42 percent. asked.

These general concerns translate into very specific indications of the areas of potential consequences of the war.

Respondents expect their impact to be greatest on:

  • fuel prices at service stations (68%),
  • possibility of heating houses (61%),
  • food prices (56%),
  • media price (45%).

One in three respondents (36%) postpone larger purchases because of the war. Slightly less (31%) expect limited availability of certain goods. The travel plans of international respondents is certainly the area that respondents believe is completely unaffected by the ongoing war. That’s what 27% think. of them.

Less inflation fears in Poland

For another month in a row, the global upward trend in inflation concerns continues. Since the end of last year, the percentage of these declarations has increased by 7 pp, to 75%. Interestingly, this trend seems different in the responses of Polish respondents. In the previous month, 83%. of respondents indicated that they were concerned about the rising costs of the daily shopping basket. This again put Poland in the top three countries most concerned about inflation – alongside South Africa and Spain, where it was listed by 86% each. asked.

At the end of March, however, while in each of these two countries the percentage had increased by 2 pp, in Poland it had fallen by 3 pp (to 80%). On the other hand, Ireland entered the top three, where those worried about prices rose by 6pp, to 86%. Opposite sentiments are expressed by respondents from China (51%) and Japan (56%). In both cases, there was an improvement of 3 pp, from 2 pp, to 57%. in contrast, South Korea’s statements deteriorated.

Respondents to the Deloitte survey in Poland also indicated the reasons for the price increase. The most common belief was that the magnitude of the increases was far too high in relation to inflation. Also that sellers take advantage of the situation to increase their own income. 58% answered yes. asked. Half as valued as companies, thanks to the increases, only cover their own growing costs. On the other hand, the decline in the percentage of people fearing inflation reported by respondents in Poland looks interesting – says Przemysław Szczygielski, Partner, Head of Financial Sector and Risk Management as well as Regulatory Advisor for Deloitte’s Financial Sector in Poland.

Less covid worries

The Deloitte survey results clearly show that in the area of ​​overall consumer sentiment, respondents reported improvement for another consecutive month. However, individual indications did not increase as sharply as the previous month. At the end of February, the biggest increase was in the lack of fear when personally participating in mass events – up to 50%, or 9 pp more than in the previous survey. In the last survey at the end of March, this indication gained another 3 pp

Better answers also apply to the other categories examined. Feeling safe when visiting restaurants rose to 65%, also by 3pp, after a big jump in late February. Then the percentage of these declarations increased by 7 pp. The use of personal services is considered safe by 63%. respondents (up 2 pp at the end and 7 pp at the start of February).

Ratings for shopping in physical stores rose another percentage point (to 68%, after a 7pp jump the previous month). In the case of hotel stays, this is an increase of 3 pp (to 63%). Regarding air travel, mood improved in two months by 9 pp. However, it is still the category of activity that enjoys the least confidence. In this case, even less than half of respondents (49%) feel safe.

Flying was also associated with the most common feeling of anxiety in Poland

Almost two-thirds of respondents (60%) said so. In one month, the marks for this activity improved by 6 pp. In the other categories studied, moods also improved. The smallest concerns are related to a visit to a restaurant, where 66 percent. respondents feel safe. This is an increase of 7 pp over the month and 19%. since the end of last year.

In many ways, we found ourselves in a situation analogous to that seen two years ago when the Covid-19 pandemic broke out. Society is experiencing increasing uncertainty and has to deal with a very dynamically changing situation, the long-term consequences of which we are unable to foresee. We must be aware that the war on our eastern border affects all aspects of life. Also consumption choices or self-reported sense of danger in various areas of daily activity. Hence probably the slowing down of the feeling of security which was growing so markedly earlier – says Anita Bielańska, Director of Consulting Department, Head of Consumer Industry at Deloitte.

The full report in English is available at www.public.tableau.com.

About the study
The latest wave of the survey was conducted at the end of March 2022. It was the 29th globally and the 23rd edition in which Polish consumers participated. In total, Deloitte experts interviewed people from 22 countries. Besides Poland, they were also citizens of Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, China, Denmark, Netherlands, Spain, France, Germany, India, Ireland , Japan, Mexico, Norway, South Africa, South Korea, Switzerland, Sweden, Italy, Great Britain and the United States.

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