Retail growth in e-commerce, GUS data

E-commerce exceeded the 11% level for the third time. in the value of the Polish retail market. Previously, such results were achieved in months when the vast majority of stationary non-food stores were closed due to the outbreak. In April last year the share of e-commerce reached 11.9%, and in November last year it was -11.4 percent

During the previous winter season lockdown, this share was 9.8% in January, 9.5% in March and 10.8% in April, and in the following months it fell at about 8%.

We mainly buy clothes and books on the Internet

The categories that achieve the largest share of online sales are still Textiles, clothing and footwear as well as Press, books and other sales in specialized stores. The first e-commerce share in November this year. year on year decreased from 35.4 to 28.6 percent, and in the second – from 38.1 to 26.6 percent.

In the category Furniture, RTV and household appliances, there was a decline from 22.5 to 20.3%, in Pharmaceuticals, cosmetics, orthopedic equipment – from 7.4 to 7.2%, while in that defined as Other – an increase from 7.1 to 10.5 percent.

On the other hand, month-on-month, the largest increase in the share of e-commerce was recorded in the categories “textiles, clothing, footwear” from 21.9%. a month ago at 28.6%, “newspapers, books, other sales in specialized stores” by 21.1%. up to 26.6% and “furniture, RTV, appliances” from 17.0%. up to 20.3 percent

In November of this year. the value of internet sales at current prices increased by 35.3%. compared to October of this year. A year ago, the dynamics were much higher – it amounted to 47.9%.

The largest increase in e-commerce revenue last month was in the Food, Beverage & Tobacco category – 48.4%. In the Textiles, clothing, footwear category, the increase was 36.6%, in Pharmaceuticals, cosmetics, orthopedic equipment – 33.1%, and in Press, books, other sales in specialized stores – 32.3%.

Overall trade increased by 12%, fuel prices increased significantly

Retail sales at constant prices in November this year. increased by 12.1%. in annual terms and in monthly terms, it decreased by 1.0%. Retail sales at current prices rose 21.2% last month. yy.

The consensus prepared by PAP Biznes indicated an increase in retail sales at constant prices in November of 8.8% y/y. and a 3.9 percent decrease in m/m.

In current prices, economists polled by PAP Biznes expected an increase of 15.8%. yy.

The textiles, clothing and footwear sector achieved the highest year-on-year sales increase at constant prices – 55.8%. On the other hand, in the automotive category, there was a drop of 4.9%.

In the category of fuels, the growth of constant prices was only 6.5%, while due to sharp increases, the dynamics of current prices reached 45.6%. In the clothing and footwear category, sales at regular prices increased by 59.1%.

ING: this is a confirmation of the strength of consumer demand in Poland

Retail sales data came in better than expected; the high reading was due to increased sales of, among other clothing, furniture, RTV, home appliances – rated Piotr Popławski of ING Bank Śląski, commenting on the GUS data. The strong overall sales momentum confirms the strength of consumer demand in Poland, he added.

“Following a strong industrial production reading for November, retail sales data also came in significantly better than expected. 9% a month earlier,” he added. ING Bank Śląski Chief Economist Piotr Popławski said in Tuesday’s commentary.

As he said, the elevated reading was due to a sharp increase in sales of apparel (55.8% year on year, 29.3% a month earlier), furniture, electronics, home appliances ( 10.3%, after 0.2% in October) and other categories (23.8%, after 13.2% a month earlier).

“These are generally categories tied to consumer demand. The elevated reading was indicated by both very strong labor market data and the structure of industrial production, where apparel production was a strong positive. “, explains Popławski.

According to the economist, the decline in vehicle sales continued (-4.9% over one year, after -5.2% a month earlier). According to him, this is probably the result of the persistent problems of access to electronic components faced by the automotive industry. In turn, the dynamics of fuel and food sales – as he noted – remained at similar levels to October.

ING estimates GDP growth this year at 5.4%.

“The strong momentum in total sales confirms the strength of consumer demand in Poland. It could also be the result of an acceleration in purchases due to the increase in prices, as well as the growing wave of the pandemic in Poland. ” – underlined Popławski. According to him, the share of online sales (11.4%) was 3 pp higher than in October. As he noted, these factors can slow the momentum of purchases at the turn of the year.

“Nevertheless, the momentum of the economy in the fourth quarter of 2021 remains strong, supporting our scenario of full-year GDP at 5.4% year-on-year,” Popławski said.

In the Economist’s view, these data show “accelerating price momentum – the retail sales deflator rose from 7.5% to 9.1% y/y”.

“Price momentum is accelerating in categories typically driven by demand, such as apparel, food or others. Fuel and energy price momentum is also on the rise, reflecting the situation in global commodity markets In addition to strong industrial production and high tariff increases by the Energy Regulatory Office for gas and electricity, retail sales results are also supporting the scenario of further interest rate hikes by the NBP “- explained Popławski. As he added, the target rate (4-4.5%) will be reached at the turn of 2022-2023.

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